Wednesday, May 7, 2014

From the recent National Climate Assessment: some picked (scary) graphs

Original 5/6/2014 Washington Post Article
1. The period from 2001-2012 was the warmest on record globally. Every year was warmer than the 1990s average.
Via the report: "Bars show the difference between each decade’s average temperature and the overall average for 1901-2000." (U.S. Global Change Research Program)
Via the report: “Bars show the difference between each decade’s average temperature and the 
overall average for 1901-2000.” (U.S. Global Change Research Program)

2. The warming trend is unlikely due to changes in the sun’s output, which has not varied substantially as temperatures have risen.
Via the report: "The full record of satellite measurements of the sun’s energy received at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere is shown in red, following its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, without any net increase. Over the same period, global temperature relative to 1961-1990 average (shown in blue) has risen markedly. This is a clear indication that changes in the sun are not responsible for the observed warming over recent decades." (U.S. Global Change Research Program)
Via the report: “The full record of satellite measurements of the sun’s energy received at 
the top of the Earth’s atmosphere is shown in red, following its natural 11-year cycle of small 
ups and downs, without any net increase. Over the same period, global temperature relative to 
1961-1990 average (shown in blue) has risen markedly. This is a clear indication that changes 
in the sun are not responsible for the observed warming over recent decades.” 
(U.S. Global Change Research Program)

3.  U.S. temperatures have warmed 1.3-1.9 degrees since 1895, with most of the increase since 1970.
Via  the report: "The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 22 years (1991-2012) compared to the 1901-1960 average for the contiguous U.S., and to the 1951-1980 average for Alaska and Hawai'i. The bars on the graph show the average temperature changes by decade for 1901-2012 (relative to the 1901-1960 average). The far right bar (2000s decade) includes 2011 and 2012. The period from 2001 to 2012 was warmer than any previous decade in every region." (U.S. Global Change Research Program)
Via the report: “The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 22 years 
(1991-2012) compared to the 1901-1960 average for the contiguous U.S., and to the 1951-1980 
average for Alaska and Hawai’i. The bars on the graph show the average temperature changes 
by decade for 1901-2012 (relative to the 1901-1960 average). The far right bar (2000s decade) 
includes 2011 and 2012. The period from 2001 to 2012 was warmer than any previous decade 
in every region.” (U.S. Global Change Research Program)

4. Precipitation events are trending heavier in the U.S.
Via the report: "One measure of a heavy precipitation event is a 2-day precipitation total that is exceeded on average only once in a five-year period, also known as a once-in-five-year event. As this extreme precipitation index for 1901-2012 shows, the occurrence of such events has become much more common in recent decades. Changes are compared to the period 1901-1960, and do not include Alaska or Hawai‘i. The 2000s decade (far right bar) includes 2001-2012." (U.S. Global Change Research Program)
Via the report: “One measure of a heavy precipitation event is a 2-day precipitation total that is 
exceeded on average only once in a five-year period, also known as a once-in-five-year event. As 
this extreme precipitation index for 1901-2012 shows, the occurrence of such events has become 
much more common in recent decades. Changes are compared to the period 1901-1960, and do 
not include Alaska or Hawai‘i. The 2000s decade (far right bar) includes 2001-2012.” 
(U.S. Global Change Research Program)

5. Sea levels are rising, with some of the fastest rates (1-2 feet per century) in the Northeast.
Via the report: "The map on the left shows local sea level trends in the Northeast region. The length of the arrows varies with the length of the time series for each tide gauge location. The graph at the right shows observed sea level rise in Philadelphia, which has increased by 1.2 feet over the past century, significantly exceeding the global average of 8 inches, increasing the risk of impacts to critical urban infrastructure in low-lying areas.(U.S. Global Change Research Program)
Via the report: “The map on the left shows local sea level trends in the Northeast region. The length 
of the arrows varies with the length of the time series for each tide gauge location. The graph at the
 right shows observed sea level rise in Philadelphia, which has increased by 1.2 feet over the past 
century, significantly exceeding the global average of 8 inches, increasing the risk of impacts to
 critical urban infrastructure in low-lying areas.(U.S. Global Change Research Program)

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